The race for the Mumbuni North Ward by-election has taken a decisive turn, with three reputable research firms The Politico Poll, Ipsos, and Mizani Africa placing Antony Kisoi of the Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) as the clear frontrunner. The results are a blow to competing political camps, particularly those linked to Cabinet Secretary Dr. Alfred Mutua, whose preferred candidates are polling far behind.
Findings released by The Politico Poll show Kisoi leading with 58%, followed by Harrison Wambua Mutuku of Maendeleo Chap Chap Party (MCCP) at 28%, while Misi Mutua of UDA trails third with 13%. The poll, conducted on November 24, reflects a commanding lead for Kisoi, who appears to have captured the majority of support among undecided voters, women groups, and youth blocs within the ward.
Similarly, a survey by Ipsos Kenya paints an even wider margin, showing Kisoi at 61.6%, Wambua at 21.3%, and Misi Mutua at 5.4%, with the remaining percentage spread among minor candidates and undecided voters. The Ipsos findings underscore what analysts describe as a strong voter preference for Wiper’s traditional grassroots presence and Kisoi’s rising popularity among first-time voters, predominantly the growing Gen Z demographic.
A third survey by Mizani Africa reinforces the trend, placing Kisoi at 63.44%, Wambua at 22.58%, Misi Mutua at 5.74%, and Carl Weathers Mutisya of the Kenya Liberal Party at 7.24%. Mizani analysts credit Kisoi’s dominance to Wiper’s historical foothold in Machakos County, strategic mobilization from local opinion shapers, and well-received community empowerment projects associated with Wiper leaders.
Political observers say the results signal a significant challenge to CS Mutua’s influence in Mumbuni North, where his party — Maendeleo Chap Chap — had previously enjoyed competitive ground. The opinion polls suggest a possible shift in loyalty, with voters gravitating toward a candidate they view as stable, accessible, and aligned with long-term local interests. Kisoi’s rise has also been attributed to intensified door-to-door campaigns, strong women’s movements backing him, and a messaging strategy centered on service delivery rather than personality politics.
With the by-election approaching, the polls indicate that Kisoi may secure victory if voting patterns mirror current sentiments. However, analysts caution that turn-out, final-week alliances, and tactical mobilization could still influence outcomes. For now, the momentum appears to be firmly in favor of the Wiper Patriotic Front, with Antony Kisoi emerging as the top contender and a potential new voice for Mumbuni North Ward.
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